The Buffalo Bills will be visiting MetLife Stadium this week, and the New York Jets would probably prefer they don’t.
Yes, the Jets are 5-3, but … well, without Breece Hall and with Zach Wilson, Jets fandom has to be feeling a little less confident than was the case a couple of weeks ago.
Wilson has looked lost on the field. He is 24th in Total QBR, and is 34th(!) in the NFL’s passer rating, beating out Kenny Pickett but behind Baker Mayfield.
Zach Wilson is like if Patrick Mahomes played every game black out drunk
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) October 30, 2022
And with the Bills’ fearsome defense coming to town — not to mention their fearsome offense — this game has Buffalo blowout written all over it.
The sportsbooks don’t exactly disagree with this armchair assessment. The Jets are 12.5-point underdogs, with PointsBet offering the best odds at -107. On the moneyline, the Jets are a whopping +475 underdog.
The over/under is set at 47, with the best over price at DraftKings (-105) and the best under at BetRivers (-108).
Take into account both the spread and the over/under, and the books see this as about a 30-17 win for the Bills, and that feels a little charitable.
For what it’s worth: The Bills giving 20.5 points can be had for +235 at Bet365.
Wilson’s ugly props
On the player prop front, you would think Wilson’s yardage prop would be relatively healthy, given that the market believes the Jets will be playing from behind. Not quite. In fact, Wilson’s yardage prop is set at 211.5 at -106 at Caesars if you’re interested in the over, and 213.5 at -120 at BetMGM if the under is your cup of tea.
Zach Wilson is spending 80% of his time trying to create and 20% of his time being a distributor. That needs to flip for him to find some consistency and success.
— Daniel Jeremiah (@MoveTheSticks) October 31, 2022
Josh Allen, on the other hand? Try 278.5 on the over at -120 at Borgata.
The passing touchdown prop market also shows the dichotomy between the two quarterbacks. Wilson’s is set at 0.5, with (thankfully, at least for him) heavy juice on the over at -254 at Caesars. Somewhat hilariously, Wilson’s interception prop is set at 1.5, with the best odds on the under at -240 at Bet365. To summarize: Touchdown prop is at 0.5, interception prop at 1.5. Sheesh.
Clearly, few are expecting the Jets to be able to win this game. But, for those masochists out there in the audience, a Jets victory with them scoring over 2.5 touchdowns is at +700 as a single-game parlay on DraftKings. Dare to dream?
Photo: Robert Deutsch/USA TODAY